编者按：我们需要多种角度来判断大势所趋。今天介绍的是XLY(Consumer discretionary sector ETF)率先走弱于SPY (SPX ETF)， 并同时走弱于XLP(Consumer Staples sector)的景象，这些正在重复着2000年和2007年的故事。历史不会重复，但是有时会惊人的相似。

Source: Short side of long

The Discretionary sectors continues to under-perform both the overall market as well as Consumer Staples sector. The chart above shows S&P 500 vs Discretionary / Staples Ratio, which represents the cyclicals vs defensives performance. Usually, cyclical sectors will turn down first before the market peak, as seen in early 2007 and early 2011. The same is true for the bottoming process too, where cyclical sectors sense the recovery before the market itself, as seen during late 2008 and late 2011. Interestingly, we are once again getting a warning from the ratio above, which could potentially mean that the market is now starting a topping process. Watch carefully!