To make things simple and easy to understand, two groups are established for investors to track. One is Secular sector and the other is Cyclical sector.

It is natural that most of us tend to focus on cyclical effect only because of recency bias. However, for the sake of big picture, we should never overlook the secular strength.

Cyclical sectors include but not limited in 1.Alternative energy, 2. Bio/ Bio related i.e. medical device plus health care providers, 3. Hydrocarbons energy 4. Airline + Hospitality 5. Defense 6. Financial including reginal banks

My pick in Cyclical sectors is 1 and 2 in 2020, however, you need to pay attention to the timing, both alternative energy and Bio/Bio related could have already priced in their major run early Jan. 2021. In a new year, you had to shift your focus to geniune cyclical FIME: Financial, Industry, Material and Hydrocarbons energy. 

For medium-long term investment in 2021, it is likely that we could replace SPY with XLI 91%* (XLB 88%*) to some degree with an attemp to match cyclical dominance. 

* denotes the correlation with SPY in the last 5 years. 

Secular sectors include but not limit in WFH and Industrial-related. WFH is so broad that it covers e-commerce, remote communications, cyber securities, online document management and cloud computing etc. Industrial-related is also too broad to specify every sub-sectors.

My pick in Secular sectors 2021 is overall WFH and Warehouse sub-sector that is so industrial related driven by growing demand from e-business companies. Beyond the WFH surging trend, 5G thesis (hardware and equipment) in semiconductor is playable too in 2021. 

** Long term secular growth (i.e. new defensive) portfolio: As of 06/14/21, top 3 shares held are AAPL 5950,  MSFT 2500 , AMZN 165