Quick mini-blog

Few people noticed this chart that illustrates the relationship between the index and market breadth. The market normally declines while the bearisih divergency appears. That means higher high index accompanied Lower high market breadth. In the recent market 5% correction, I noticed that market breadth had dropped significantly. Is it a good or bad? 

In my humble opinion, I think it is good news. That implies the bearish divergency has played out. This signal usually makes the index go higher high again. Also, the rally driven by the improved market breadth would have high likelihood to stay on the right track for a renewed period of time. 

 

上周也有好几个朋友问我QCOM 这个股票怎么看?大家都知道这是5G 里面的标杆,季报你也不能说它不好,但anyway , if you respect Price action, this is what it is. 关键并不是what to buy, 因为5G 作为一个风口是显然的,它是一个cyclical and secular sector 的一个交集,2021年能共享这个交集 ”王者荣耀“的 并不多。 这里我们要搞清楚另一层更关键的意思是when to buy, 我可以说,大部分基本面没毛病的公司,基本都是when to buy, 而不是what to buy. 我给一张图,想说明的是RRR 是when to buy 的核心概念,risk reward ratio 代表着你做任何生意的calculated risk control。 市场不是你,也不是我开的,我们只能在风险回报比合适的时候去博弈一个概率。QCOM 第一个出现decent RRR 的区域是142ish, 但是更好的RRR 则出现在120ish.

 

Feb.08 The market has opened for 30mins. Focus on the solar sector. We know the tight consolidation pattern normally points to higher ground. For example, FSLR, 7 narrow bar could lead  to a pre-ER run prior to Feb.18

 As constantly mentioned, I feel this year's parabolich star could be hydrocarbon energy sector including oil and natureal gas. We have already seen energy sector rise, which I believe the moment could accelearate, however, we shouldn't under-estimate natural gas either. They belong to the same macro sector. 

 Now move on to 'secular sector" .... when it comes to secular, people usually mentioned 3 sub-setors that were represented as 3 ETF "FDN, IGV and SMH". They rotate constantly as well. Quite often, you see one sub-sector shoot at the moon while others are still crouching....Yes, this is the exact time you should target that sub-sector which crouches. I know it is pretty hard because it violates the fundamental belief of human being. However, if you wanna continue to drive alpha, you have to stick to this rule. 

 

 

While blank check PSTH parabolic ran, the similar stock IPOD paused. Expect it to catch up. The stop protection is at 14.85 break down.  

 

Normally if the index really wanna touches 4045 on Feb.23, I don't think AAPL will lag. This big elephant could push the market to 4045 along with AMZN. 

 

Speaking of precious metal, Gold is ultra-weak recently. Is it geniuenly weak or doing accumulation? I think one of the critical clues is here. Will this bullish divergency imply Gold reversal? No solid answer, however, if you disregard this divergency, you might lose a piece of insights. Notes: the divergency means GDX RS HL vs Gold LL by itself. 

 

Feb.09 BA looks poised to further upside after flagging for 2 months 

some charts updates on daily time frame

 

 

 

 

 U weekly chart looks interesting. If you like mid-term stock, probably U should be placed in your watch list. 

You probably have no idea what this kind of candlesticks refer to on daily chart. You will be able to know it after thousands of time training to trade it. 

 

XPEV 1st entry was at 41, I would add position if it breaks out of this flagging resistance

 

if your eyes were not well trained, you would not identify this opportunity intraday that could impact your position

I can't help wondering "being patient" is an ability or character. In trading or investment, I prerfer to claim 'being patient" belongs to 'ability'. For instance, you probably missed a part of strong move in certain sector e.g. Energy, however, if you are well trained, you would rather dig deeper to explore if there are any stocks lagging or retracing. This requires 'ability'...

Look at NOV and HP, tell me what you are going to do with it. Do not say the market not offering the chance, the chance came to pick you up, nevertheless , you are stuck in actively discussing how high Bitcoin can go aimlessly. 

 

 

People asked me how much likely IWM Russell can shoot to 260 in Mar. I would say it is not unlikely. Russell is the hard core of cyclical sector. The market could bring IWM russell to 260 sooner than later. Implication: when you see IWM retrace, buy dip with TNA. 

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