编者按：这篇文章比较扎实地阐释了机构是如何进行筹码accumulation / distribution的。正是从这个意义上来讲，我们一直建议散户需要学点技术分析。因为实践证明，大多数机构的Tricks (manipulate the market) 都可以通过技术分析来解密，也就是说逃不过受过训练的技术分析从业者的眼睛。这种解密尤其是可以通过趋势辨认(Trend)，形态(chart pattern)辨认，背离(divergency)和内在波动率(Implied volatility)等来进行。请记住，股市是个零和游戏，您要么成为一个严肃的，受过完整训练的投资者，要么就持续地给机构捐钱，而他们是绝对不会给您说声谢谢的，当然也不会在年底开charity receipt 让您抵税。

"The large operator does not, as a rule, go into a campaign unless he sees in prospect a movement of from 10 to 50 points. Livermore once told me he never touched anything unless there were at least 10 points in it according to his calculations."

So writes Richard Wyckoff, the legendary trader who in the 1930s wrote a manifesto that gained him a cult following on Wall Street.

His 1931 book, "The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks – A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique," is out of print and somewhat difficult to find these days , but even in 2013, hedge fund managers still swear by it.

One of the key takeaways from the book is that if you want to succeed, you have to learn to recognize the professionals and understand what they are doing. That's what those who follow Wyckoff do — they watch the large operators.

Wyckoff walks us through the process of how a large operator will manipulate a stock up or down — so that next time one sees it unfolding on the screen before his or her own eyes, he or she can react accordingly.

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机构筹码的accumulation / distribution

First, some context: trading is a lot like any other merchandising business, and liquidity is important

It takes a while for a pro to accumulate a position in advance of a big move – buying too many shares at once would cause the price to rise too quickly

Instead, here's how he sets it up: first, he'll "shake out" the little guys by forcing the stock lower in order to get a better price

Then, he will try to time the top of his planned price rise with some "good news" about the stock he may already know about

So, let's look at an example of a typical market operation. Say a stock is trading in the $30-35 range and the pro sees it going to $60 soon...

He's trying to pick up 50,000 shares, but it's too much, so he starts by taking as much as he can between $30 and $35

When it gets back to the top of that range, he forces the price back down so he can pick up more shares for cheaper

Using this method, the pro will accumulate a large enough position to effectively remove almost ALL would-be sellers from the market

Then, he starts driving the price up to $60 by buying more shares – and he really ramps it up toward the end to coincide with the "good news" he is expecting in a few days' time

Now, the pro has accumulated a huge position in the stock, and he needs to find someone to sell it to at $60. By now, people have seen the surge, and they think something's coming

Then, the news hits, and the pro can instantly unload 20-30k shares as people rush in to buy

To finish unwinding his position, the pro does the exact same thing he did at the bottom – he works that stock up and down in a range until he's sold it all

Now, the stock is in "weak hands" – everyone bought it on bullish news after a ~$30 rally

So, it's time to go short at $60! The pro can initiate a big short position, but fool people by putting on good-sized buy orders at $56, supporting the stock and inducing people to keep buying

Then, he pulls out the rug – canceling all his buy orders and leading a raid on the stock. That's how it's done – played in both directions