编者按：我们在每天的视频交易笔记(trading notes)里一直演绎着执行为王的理念。比较多的新手会倾向于仰慕选股高手，事实上选股这种IDEA层面的东西在交易系统里并不是占主要的地位。正像这篇文章说的：要搞清楚idea 与 Trade 的区别。如果没有一个好的交易系统(入场/出场/止损/加仓/止盈/仓位管理/对冲等)，就算给你一手好牌也会糟蹋了。毕肯证券学院第六期交易系统决策暑期班June.20 正式开学。详情见 http://beaconsi.org/index.php/training-courses/2013-10-31-20-52-08/trading-system 也可发邮件到该Email地址已收到反垃圾邮件插件保护。要显示它您需要在浏览器中启用JavaScript。 获取详细课程计划。
The Distinction between an Idea and a Trade
Mike Bellafiore
Source: http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/the-distinction-between-an-idea-and-a-trade
I was talking with a new trader in my office with our floor manager trying to get him on track.
“How do you think you are doing?” I asked.
The new trader said, “I think I am doing a better job of sensing what sectors will move next.”
So this is good work but not the whole game as many think. This is just the start of the game.
Let’s say you think you see money rotation out of a sector. You conclude that sector will go down. That is an idea. That is just an idea. That is not a trade.
a) What stock(s) in the sector is best to short?
b) What price offers an excellent risk/reward for your short?
c) Will the market take the entire sector higher even with money rotating out of this sector?
d) How long will you hold your short?
e) Is there a catalyst from price action that you can spot to improve your risk/reward?
f) Is there a pattern that you recognize for the trade opportunity that you have seen before?
g) How much size should you take with the trade?
h) How much are you willing to risk if you are wrong?
i) Where will you lighten up if the trade works in your favor?
j) What do you want to see with the price action to get you bigger in the trade?
k) Will you hedge the position?
l) Can you use options to express this trade better?
m) Are there better trades worth your emotional, financial and intellectual capital?
Okay I will stop here though I suspect I can think of more questions.
When you answer the questions above, and develop a trade plan then and only then are you now trading well. Before that your thoughts are just ideas with unprepared trades.